From Rabbi Stan - A couple of points need to be established to understand when Jesus was born.
Point 1 - John the Baptist Conception
Luke 1:5 Johns Father Zechariah from the Priestly Division of Abiah or Avia noted by Rabbi Stan.
So we go to 1 Chronicles 24 and understand the priest served 2 times per year or six months apart. 2nd Division would serve in 2nd week. 3rd Divisions in 3rd week and so on.
All divisions worked in the Pilgrim seasons, Passover, Pentecost, Sukkot, etc all priest served.
So the Priest served in the temple 5 weeks per year. Festival weeks don’t count in the rotation.
1 Chronicles 24 will list the divisions and give the order they served. In verse 10 we find the Abiah or (Avia as Rabbi Stan called it). Zechariah would have served from Shabbat to Shabbat the week before Pentecost. 8 weeks from the first of Nisan. (You come to the week before Pentecost).
So we know approximately when Zechariah has his encounter. He would have been serving in the temple at this time.
Luke 1:8: Says he was chosen by lot to burn the incense which was a once in a lifetime because once you serve your lot is removed.
Luke 1-11: The angel says your prayer is heard and Elizabeth will have a son.
Shavuot comes in the 1st week of the 3rd month. Give Zechariah a week to get back to Hebron so on the 2nd or 3rd week of the 3rd month Elizabeth would have conceived. Normal gestation period of nine months would have put John the Baptist in the 1st Month of Nisan around the 7th to 14th of Nisan which is significant because it is at Passover. So John would have been born on Passover.
Point 2 - Luke 1:35 tell us Jesus conception and Johns conception was six months apart.
(Our Calendar) John conceived in June ish, Jesus conceived in January ish.
So….approximate dates would work out Johns birth in the spring and Jesus birth in the fall.
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